2040 feels far too soon for this thought experiment, at least in the U.S. ICEs will remain the primary vehicle for most families until charging networks are built out. 40-50 years is more realistic.
The charging network could be built out in 5 years... if there was money in it.
(No, don't ask me how that would work. I don't know. I just think that private enterprise could do it quite quickly, if they saw a way to turn a profit doing so.)
Depends where. EVs are already 23% of light vehicle sales in California. The US won’t transition equally.
And the median car is 13 years old and getting older. If the market share is only 23% today, then in 2040 the fleet will still be overwhelmingly ICE-powered, unless the government starts pulling levers that accelerate the transition, like quadrupling the fuel taxes.
EV adoption is incredibly uneven. It makes predictions really difficult.