I get that fabricating data and academic integrity look like a different issue from ROI-based funding, but I don’t think they are. In the context of public funding, there must be a justification for the money spent. For a long time, it was “this research will help all of humanity and further our understanding of the universe”, which is great until it turns out that a lot of the research is questionable at best and outright lies at worst. How does made up research help further our understanding of the universe?
So absent institutional integrity, another justification for funding must be found, and one option is ROI. That has its own drawbacks, but at least if we start there we could move back to a place of institutional trust.
The ROI of unknown unknowns is by definition unknown.
I'm always amazed by people who speak fancy econ language like "ROI", economics is an abysmal example of science, it can't predict or solve anything but you're arguing for making it the arbiter of all other sciences? That's going to end as everything econ - in another great depression or war.