I'd like to agree with you and remain optimistic, but so much tech has promised the moon and stagnated into oblivion that I just don't have any optimism left to give. I don't know if you're old enough, but remember when speech-to-text was the next big thing? DragonSpeak was released in 1997, everyone was losing their minds about dictating letters/documents in MS Word, and we were promised that THIS would be the key interface for computing evermore. And.. 27 years later, talking to the latest Siri, it makes just as many mistakes as it did back then. In messenger applications people are sending literal voice notes -- audio clips -- back and forth because dictation is so unreliable. And audio clips are possibly the worst interface for communication ever (no searching, etc).
Remember how blockchain was going to change the world? Web3? IoT? Etc etc.
I've been through enough of these cycles to understand that, while the AI gimmick is cool and all, we're probably at the local maximum. The reliability won't improve much from here (hallucinations etc), while the costs to run it will stay high. The final tombstone will be when the AI companies stop running at a loss and actually charge for the massive costs associated with running these models.
> 27 years later, talking to the latest Siri, it makes just as many mistakes as it did back then
Have you tried talking to ChatGPT voice mode? It's mind blowing. You just have a conversation with it. In any language. About anything. The other day I wanted to know about the difference between cast iron and wrought iron, and it turned into a 10 or 15 minute conversation. That's maybe a good example of an "easy" topic for LLMs (lots of textbooks for it to memorize), but the world is full of easy topics that I know nothing about!
How can you possibly look at what LLMs are doing and the progress made in the last ~3 years and equate it to crypto bullshit? Also it's super weird to include IoT in there, seeing as it has become all but ubiquitous.
I'm not as bearish on AI, but its hard to tell if you can really extrapolate future performance based on past improvements.
Personally, I'm more interested in the political angle. I can see that AI will be disruptive because there's a ton of money and possibly other political outcomes depending on it doing exactly that.