None of these are applicable to the naval context here. That $30k drone has a measly 10km range. You can't navigate visually on the open ocean. The payload requirements are at least 100kg if you want to do any damage, which none of these come close to. None of them can withstand modern military countermeasures; the "EW resistance" in this case just means operating in a denied environment, which is pretty old and basic tech.
Completely different class of drone capability. Something that could actually do damage in a naval context against modern countermeasure tech would be much more expensive.
I literally had this exact same discussion here about 3 years ago when people were scoffing about the idea that tanks would become unusable archaic white elephants because they're vulnerable to drones.
At the moment, yes, if you want to field a drone that can kill a ship then it's going to be expensive. But we haven't seen any real development of ship-killing drones because the Ukraine conflict is land-based with only limited naval conflict.
Military doctrine only really advances during wartime, by people in the field desperately trying new things to survive. If we had a naval war you'd very quickly see new advances in all this tech and I think you'd very quickly end up in the same situation; that large ships become useless archaic white elephants because they're vulnerable to drones.
> That $30k drone has a measly 10km range.
You don't necessarily need a lot of range if you launch them from a small drone vessel[1].
Ok. Flying drones that we've seen in Ukraine lack the range to survive a naval deployment.
Ukraine has had some success engaging Russian surface warships with small aquatic craft type drones.
Does a ground-based operator pose a threat to modern navies by means of some swarm of jet-ski robots?
Yes, but only in the littorals or protected waters. Small unmanned surface vessels can't really operate effectively out in the open ocean. They lack the necessary sensors, endurance, and sea keeping ability.
for now
What does that even mean? There isn't any magic technology on the horizon which will allow small USVs to operate effectively in blue water.
How much does a swarm of extremely long range jet ski robots with hardened military electronics and large explosives packages cost?
Getting enough of anything that can do serious damage to a ship to overwhelm the defenses is going to be an expensive undertaking. Maybe if some idiot sails a $10 billion aircraft carrier close to shore such a mass attack is justified, but it is simply not at all evident that "some success engaging Russian surface warships" equates to posing a serious threat to modern navies.