The plural of anecdote is not data, but your personal experience definitely aligns with the "vibes."
AI will remove the need for a lot of tech worker cycles. Period. The idea that "some new work" will just show up to fill the void seems ludicrous on the face of it.
There will never be a need for "junior developer" type work, and "senior developer" types will be able to LLMs to generate working software that they can audit / maintain.
There's no new untapped market for "tech labor" that can plausibly emerge. Companies see this future, even if it's not here yet. Even if they aren't doing layoffs yet, they are downsizing through attrition, assuming the robots will replace the lost labor.
I've been in this field for 25 years. I consider myself pretty good at what I do. Although I can ask the robots to do more and more of my job for me to try and stay employed, I know I'll find little joy in that. I'm just hoping I can make it to retirement, or my spouse can support me.
As a society it's not fair to put people in this position where all their expertise and craft becomes worthless, but that is how capitalism works.
The Luddites knew it. Now it is our turn.
You're speaking with great confidence. In the medium-long term I agree, but my lived experience says you're wrong in the here and now -- we, for example, are still hiring juniors.
You're right, I'm thinking about the future. We're still in the window where the tools aren't really ready.
If you need to get shit done right now you have to mostly do things the old way with similar headcount. I assert though that on the margins the market is already shrinking - if for no other reason than employers with longer time horizons are looking to target future employment levels.