> AI bullshit so that this stupid f*ing bubble pops
I don't understand what you mean by this. Do you think LLMs are going away? Or is that you think AI-related technologies won't continue to improve?
There can be a bubble of speculation around something that does have real value. Housing for example.
What is driving the market to assign such a huge value to models is that they can sell themselves as the solution to any and every problem, even if they aren't
I don't understand what you mean by this. What specifically do you think is going to happen?
Not OP, but what typically happens: a large contraction.
Investors are already contracting the over-investment in AI because it’s so hard to turn an ROI. Satya Nadella was recently on the record as saying he doesn’t think AI has proven a sustainable ROI yet, and that it needs to in order to sustain the current levels of investment. As a matter of cause and effect he is of course right. But no one can predict the timelines and outcomes with exactitude.
Tomorrow Nvidia could be seized by a regulator and frozen, decimating the GPU market. SoftBank could decide they’re going all in on some new thing instead. (Incredible examples, of course.)
Personally I don’t think AI/LLMs/et al are going away. But the way that it’s getting bolted into -everything- is likely to eventually subside.
It’s been interesting to see companies rebrand around AI even when they don’t actually produce or integrate any of those technologies. That’s driving part of the overvaluation of AI at large.
AI and the collection of technologies that get called AI aren’t new. They’re just suddenly in focus and all the rage.
We’ve seen this cycle before in technology and we’ll see it again with something else.
The hype bubble bursts: market experiences a trough of disappointment, then recovers a slope of enlightenment toward a realistic valuation of the new technology.
I don't understand what you mean by this. What specifically do you think is going to happen?
They will remain but when they have to charge enough profit to cover the cost of generating the responses, how many people will actually pay for it? Last time I saw 97% of OpenAI usage was free customers. No way to force the 3% to pay for their usage.
I mean I pay for several already.
If I had to, I guess I'd pay $100/month for ChatGPT.
But I also don't see how these things don't keep getting cheaper. What recent technology has gotten more expensive over time?
> What recent technology has gotten more expensive over time?
Cloud. And AI is not very different from the fundamentals of Cloud; there's vendor lock-in, meaning the vendors can raise prices at will, representing a liability to whoever tries to depend on them.
> Cloud
There’s short-term increases sure but there’s no doubt in my mind that $100 in cloud today gets you much more than $100 in cloud 10 years ago. And the $100 is worth less today!